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The study on the applicability of Bayesian network for decision making in criminal investigation - Focus on the judgment whether a murderer was acquaintance of the victim -

Abstract

In criminal investigation, investigator can allocate resources efficiently and solve criminal case rapidly by means of rational decision making. This study was conducted for checking the applicability of Bayesian network for decision making in criminal investigation. Especially I wanted to check the Bayesian network’s usability and accuracy in murder case through building model for judgment whether the criminal was an acquaintance of the victim and determining the probability of being acquaintance by applying clues in crime scene. Bayesian network can help to model the relationship between evidences and informations with conditional probability, and help to calculate posterior probability after applying evidences. After modeling for judgment whether the criminal was acquaintance, the result of the posterior probability after applying evidences to Bayesian network model was equal to the result of actual investigation. This suggests that the Bayesian network can be applied for rational decision making in criminal investigation.

keywords
수사, 의사결정, 면식범, 베이지안 네트워크, 범죄통계, criminal investigation, decision making, acquaintance of the victim, Bayesian network, criminal statistics

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